Plan B: A Dealer’s Best Strategy for the Unexpected

Most dealers pride themselves on knowing their market inside and out. But what happens when demand takes an unexpected turn? Do you have a plan for staying ahead, or at least afloat, no matter which way the market moves? 

That’s where contingency planning comes in: thinking through multiple “what if” scenarios before they happen. It’s Business 101, and dealers who practice it gain a clear edge when the market shifts. 

Playing Out the Scenarios 

Counting on household growth to fuel construction? The data shows it’s smarter to have a Plan B ready. Take the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies’ latest 10-year projections: Between 2025 and 2035, the share of homeowners could rise modestly by 0.8 percentage points (to 66.8%)—or it could decline by as much as 1.6 points (to 64.3%). That means dealers should prepare for growth to level off rather than banking on a housing boom. 

That’s why contingency planning matters. By sketching out multiple scenarios—growth, decline, or somewhere in between—you give yourself a playbook for how to respond. 

During COVID, one dealer built three plans: a mild sales dip, a severe drop, and an extreme case that assumed closure. Reality brought something else entirely: a sales surge. While that wasn’t on the radar, the exercise still gave the owner confidence, clarity, and a head start in decision-making. 

The takeaway? Planning for multiple outcomes doesn’t mean you’ll get it exactly right, it means you’ll be prepared to pivot faster when the unexpected happens. 

Tools to Make It Simple 

Contingency planning doesn’t require an MBA. Years ago, consultant Jim Enter built a “stress tester” spreadsheet that shows how various sales-decline scenarios ripple through an operation. Revived during the pandemic, it remains a valuable tool for visualizing risks and pressure points.  

Even a simple spreadsheet of your own can help. Adjust sales, labor, or material costs, and you’ll immediately see how different conditions affect your bottom line. That knowledge equips you to make faster, more confident moves when circumstances change. 

Turning Planning into Advantage 

Of course, planning on paper won’t cover every possibility. The dealer who imagined only “bad” scenarios never considered the upside of a sales boom. But that, too, is part of the lesson: Contingency planning isn’t about predicting the future, it’s about building resilience into your business. 

Why It Matters for Dealers 

The past few years have proven that volatility is the rule, not the exception—pandemics, tariffs, material shortages, and demand surges can reshape the playing field overnight. Dealers who run the numbers in advance, sketch multiple outcomes, and build flexibility into their operations are positioned not only to weather storms but also to seize opportunities when others are scrambling. 

In short: It’s not the plan itself that gives you an edge. It’s the act of planning. 

DISCLAIMER  

The information presented is for general promotional purposes only and does not constitute a binding offer or guarantee of performance. All product claims, benefits, and testimonials are based on typical use and may vary depending on individual circumstances.